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Author Topic: Fourth or seventh?  (Read 1963 times)

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Putneyquin

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #15 on: Sunday 05-May-2019, 20:43* »
Can't say I'm that excited about our improvement. Losing 6 from the last 7 is still a shocking effort, and that solitary win scraping past a rubbish Tigers side at home! I'm expecting more of the same in two weeks' time.
The loss of form and momentum has come at the wrong time of the season, agree 100%.

But think you're being harsh and ignoring the facts.

Proof of progress under PG is having 55 points vs. 36 points at end of last season.

Get a single BP on Saturday and we are guaranteed 6th place and Champion Cup rugby vs 10th last season.

Do 2 pts better than Saints and we're in the playoffs, which I doubt many would have dreamt possible given the dramatic and depressing demise under JK last season.
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QuinKent

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #16 on: Sunday 05-May-2019, 20:45* »
Strangely I find myself preferring 5th or 6th to 4th - because i don’t think we are yet able to win two on the trot against Chiefs/Sarries, and we’re finishing the season looking a bit more threadbare than I’d like (cf Saints, who are definitely finishing strongly). So part of me prefers we bank a better season than most of us expected, give most of our players two extra weeks to recover and enter next season looking to be top four favourites and premiership (if not European champions cup) contenders. But we have to nail top six first...

BedfordshireBoy

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #17 on: Sunday 05-May-2019, 21:02* »
Fourth Place
Saints and Quins are the only two teams who can take the fourth spot
If Saints win at Chiefs next week then they take the spot
If Saints lose and Quins win at Wasps then Quins take the spot
Top Six
If Saints win and Quins win, Quins will be fifth
If Saints and Quins lose and Bath have a bonus point win, Bath will be fifth and Quins sixth, unless Sale also win with a bonus point win in which case Bath will be fifth, Sale sixth and Quins seventh unless Quins get a losing bonus point in which case they would hold on to sixth place.
I think that covers it, basically we need to win at Coventry.
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Quins Head

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #18 on: Sunday 05-May-2019, 21:20* »
We need to keep it in our own hands. A win is essential and bonus point win would give us a great chance of fourth.

Saints are certainly capable of beating Exeter (particularly given the relative form of the two sides. I’d expect Exeter to want to bounce back ahead of the play-offs though.
I don’t think us getting a bonus point win will make any difference

quintastic.

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #19 on: Sunday 05-May-2019, 21:39* »
Interestingly 7th this year could still see us in the Champions Cup:

"In accordance with a decision of the EPCR Board comprising the nine unions, federations and league bodies, the 20th place in the Heineken Champions Cup will be determined as follows:

i) Heineken Champions Cup winner, if not already qualified
ii) Challenge Cup winner, if not already qualified
iii) Challenge Cup losing finalist, if not already qualified
iv) Play-off match between the losing Challenge Cup semi-finalists, if not already qualified
v) Highest ranked non-qualified club by virtue of league position from the same league as the Heineken Champions Cup winner"

This is really interesting, I hadn't seen this before. So

i) both saracens and leinster are qualified
ii) Clermont are qualified and La Rochelle are 5 points above 7th with two games to go
iii) As above
iv) if we dont get in the top 6, its because sale have. So surely we get this spot
v) might have to support saracens in the final next week!

Quinston Churchill

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #20 on: Monday 06-May-2019, 08:41* »
I don’t think us getting a bonus point win will make any difference

Presumably because you think Saints will win? TBH, the bonus point is academic as we can only get 4th if we win and Saints lose.

As I said in the original post, I think Exeter will want to get back some more momentum ahead of the play-offs. Saints are certain capable of beating them and are in good form, but not many teams win at Sandy Park.

Banstead Quin

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #21 on: Monday 06-May-2019, 09:01* »
Last week, Chiefs first XV were poor and only beat us because of the wind and poor decision making. Their second XV were poor in the second half this week and they've got next week off. So that's 3 weeks since they've had a good win and looked dominant at home plus Sarries could catch them if they have another poor game and lose, leading to no momentum.

Saints & Glaws have been outstanding in the last 6 weeks so they have momentum.

I think we forget Top 4 and just focus on beating Wasps and then see what happens. If this team really want it, they can go and get it. Friday, we had Care, Marchant, Big Kev etc coming back from injury so not fully up to speed. I'd expect them all to be hungry this week and showing PG that they all want to start and if Top 4 happens that they can play 3 matches on the trot.

Said I'd be happy with Top 6 so either way, I'd be happy but want to see a gutsy performance.

never sleep

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #22 on: Monday 06-May-2019, 09:08* »
I think that if we want to be in the champions cup next year, then it is important that we don't go on as a 6th or 7th placed team as this means that we will have a tough group without a 'cannon fodder' team

Gone

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #23 on: Monday 06-May-2019, 09:43* »
Not sure how we can end up 7th but anyway.

If you are annoyed if we don’t make the playoffs you obviously haven’t watched our disintegration under Kingston.

AdrianB

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #24 on: Monday 06-May-2019, 09:58* »
If we lose and do not pickup a lbp, Sale get a try bonus point win & Bath win with a try bonus or win by a large enough margin to (points diff is 18 in our favour).

Quinston Churchill

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #25 on: Monday 06-May-2019, 11:05* »
Last week, Chiefs first XV were poor and only beat us because of the wind and poor decision making. Their second XV were poor in the second half this week and they've got next week off. So that's 3 weeks since they've had a good win and looked dominant at home plus Sarries could catch them if they have another poor game and lose, leading to no momentum.

Saints & Glaws have been outstanding in the last 6 weeks so they have momentum.

I think we forget Top 4 and just focus on beating Wasps and then see what happens. If this team really want it, they can go and get it. Friday, we had Care, Marchant, Big Kev etc coming back from injury so not fully up to speed. I'd expect them all to be hungry this week and showing PG that they all want to start and if Top 4 happens that they can play 3 matches on the trot.

Said I'd be happy with Top 6 so either way, I'd be happy but want to see a gutsy performance.

I agree.

I still think Baxter will be wanting a reaction from Chiefs though as he won’t want to go in to the play-offs on a run of defeats.

It makes little difference if we don’t win though!

D-Quins

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #26 on: Monday 06-May-2019, 13:35* »
For me I expect Baxter to look at the Saint's game as the start of the playoffs.  If Saint win in Exeter they will likely be back the following week in the playoffs against Exeter at Home.  He would not want Saint's going there in the playoffs on the back of just beating them in Sandy park.  Would be a big advantage to Saints.

Quins Head

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #27 on: Monday 06-May-2019, 15:04* »
Presumably because you think Saints will win? TBH, the bonus point is academic as we can only get 4th if we win and Saints lose.

As I said in the original post, I think Exeter will want to get back some more momentum ahead of the play-offs. Saints are certain capable of beating them and are in good form, but not many teams win at Sandy Park.
Not at all it literally will make no difference do you want me to explain it to you or can you do the maths yourself

Quinston Churchill

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #28 on: Monday 06-May-2019, 17:44* »
Not sure the condescending tone is really needed, but whatever, note taken and I don’t need you to explain. Thanks very much all he same ...

Yareet

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Re: Fourth or seventh?
« Reply #29 on: Monday 06-May-2019, 17:57* »
This is really interesting, I hadn't seen this before. So

i) both saracens and leinster are qualified
ii) Clermont are qualified and La Rochelle are 5 points above 7th with two games to go
iii) As above
*iv) if we dont get in the top 6, its because sale have. So surely we get this spot*
v) might have to support saracens in the final next week!

Hmmm, it might make sense that this were the case, but it’s not what the rules say so I’m not convinced that is what would happen.

They also don’t make any provision for the losing finalist of the Heineken Cup to be given a place the following year - they have to qualify via their league.

Really badly written rules IMO

 

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