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Author Topic: 2020-21 Roadmap  (Read 1667 times)

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poorfour

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2020-21 Roadmap
« on: Thursday 10-Dec-2020, 22:08* »
Right. I’m a bit late with this this year, caught unawares by the short cutover between seasons. So let’s get to it.

How’s it work, mister?

You can’t win every match, especially against Exeter, and some games are easier than others. So to give us an indication of how the season is going, we look at how we tend to do against various teams and combine that with a slightly more scientific view of how many points you need to finish at various places in the table.

That enables us to look at the table after a sobering defeat and realise that, actually, we can take the hit and still do OK, or to add a little extra excitement to an unexpected win.

So what do we need this year?

Last year had an exceptional feel to the table on account of a certain side who I have it on good legal advice were absolutely not breaking the salary cap and in fact very much did not break it for several years nevertheless copping a whopping points deduction for some reason wholly unrelated to being systematic and persistent cheats for a very long time.

You’d expect that to distort the target table but in fact the statistics are pretty robust:
YearRelegated11th7th5th2nd
2019-20-3829466474
2018-193141555678
2017-182236566377
2016-172033525984
2015-162027556074
2014-15134546875
2013-141622496778
2012-132333536074
2011-123233465974
2010-112323526276
2009-102832485771
2008-091734536166
2007-081234596370
2006-073334516171
2005-062741455666
2004-053840475773
2003-04337535573
2002-033436425662
Average19.033.350.960.273.1
Std Dev17.05.24.33.74.9
Target3639566479
19-203339566479

The relegation number has swung around a bit, but we calibrate the targets on what it takes to be secure in 11th, and in that and all the other slots the numbers are unchanged.

So how will the season go?

            Position / Target   39   56   64   79   
RoundDateHome teamAway teamPoints / End of season total11th396th554th641st79ActualTotal
120/11/2020HarlequinsExeter ChiefsPremiership0011111100
228/11/2020Northampton SaintsHarlequinsPremiership1145455655
306/12/2020Gloucester RugbyHarlequinsPremiership12161617510
426/12/2020HarlequinsBristol BearsPremiership1317410411010
501/01/2021Worcester WarriorsHarlequinsPremiership14411414415212
610/01/2021HarlequinsLondon IrishPremiership48415418419214
729/01/2021WaspsHarlequinsPremiership19116119423519
805/02/2021Bath RugbyHarlequinsPremiership110117120427423
912/02/2021HarlequinsLeicester TigersPremiership414421424532528
1019/02/2021HarlequinsSale SharksPremiership418425428436432
1126/02/2021Newcastle FalconsHarlequinsPremiership119126432440133
1205/03/2021HarlequinsNorthampton SaintsPremiership423430436444538
1312/03/2021Exeter ChiefsHarlequinsPremiership124131137145139
1419/03/2021HarlequinsGloucester RugbyPremiership125132441449544
1526/03/2021Bristol BearsHarlequinsPremiership126133142150145
1616/04/2021HarlequinsWorcester WarriorsPremiership430437446555550
1723/04/2021London IrishHarlequinsPremiership131441450459454
1807/05/2021HarlequinsWaspsPremiership435445454463559
1914/05/2021Leicester TigersHarlequinsPremiership136449458467   
2028/05/2021HarlequinsBath RugbyPremiership137453462471   
2104/06/2021Sale SharksHarlequinsPremiership138154163475   
2206/06/2020HarlequinsNewcastle FalconsPremiership139155164479   
   

As the season reaches the business end, we're pretty comfortable in 4th with some tough matches still to come - particularly the 3rd v 4th clash against Sale. Quins have an attack that can trouble any side - the question is whether they can hold it together as we seem to lose players to red cards or injury every match. On the plus side, a combination of Northmore, Lang and Lasike provided a good enough cover for Andre against Wasps, and while Jack Kenningham only made 1 turnover his enormous contribution around the park lessened the sting of losing Will Evans. The next question is whether one of our outside backs can fill Mike Brown's big boots effectively for the remaining games.


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« Last Edit: Wednesday 12-May-2021, 12:05* by poorfour »
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Bolly-Quin

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Re: Gussy's Roadmap 2020-21
« Reply #1 on: Thursday 10-Dec-2020, 22:36* »
P4 - might it be an idea to add a cumulative total to the far right hand side of the second table?

poorfour

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Re: Gussy's Roadmap 2020-21
« Reply #2 on: Thursday 10-Dec-2020, 22:42* »
P4 - might it be an idea to add a cumulative total to the far right hand side of the second table?

It might. But it's a bloody pain without a BBCode editor of some sort... I'll see what I can do

deadlyfrom5yardsout

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Re: Gussy's Roadmap 2020-21
« Reply #3 on: Friday 11-Dec-2020, 09:59* »
Me...Whoosh.....!!

Quinston Churchill

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Re: Gussy's Roadmap 2020-21
« Reply #4 on: Friday 11-Dec-2020, 10:18* »
Any chance of adding this in the same format as the team picker?  :)

poorfour

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Re: Gussy's Roadmap 2020-21
« Reply #5 on: Friday 11-Dec-2020, 13:27* »
Any chance of adding this in the same format as the team picker?  :)

Not sure how to do that, but I'll look into it. One problem is that the underlying spready is in Excel rather than Google Sheets so I would need to convert and then work out how to lock it down appropriately.

Fursty

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Re: Gussy's Roadmap 2020-21
« Reply #6 on: Friday 11-Dec-2020, 19:46* »
Having just watched Saints v Bordeaux I think we might need to revise down the importance of an away BP at Franklin Gardens this year - they’re in big trouble, truly woeful.

euroquin

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Re: Gussy's Roadmap 2020-21
« Reply #7 on: Monday 01-Feb-2021, 13:31* »
Looking at this thread again (which might need renaming 😉 ) then we are on target for a top 4 finish...
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poorfour

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Re: Gussy's Roadmap 2020-21
« Reply #8 on: Sunday 07-Mar-2021, 17:27* »
Quick update after a couple of weeks off. We’re tracking well for Top 4, but need to step things up if we have ambitions to make the top 2.

T-Bone

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Re: Gussy's Roadmap 2020-21
« Reply #9 on: Monday 08-Mar-2021, 13:38* »
So according to this, for top 4 we need 6 wins from out remaining 10 games. Seems very doable.

The roadmap suggests we ought to win away against Tigers but lose at home to Falcons. Even disregarding current form, I'd have thought the other way round would make more sense.

poorfour

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Re: 2020-21 Roadmap
« Reply #10 on: Monday 08-Mar-2021, 14:51* »
So according to this, for top 4 we need 6 wins from out remaining 10 games. Seems very doable.

The roadmap suggests we ought to win away against Tigers but lose at home to Falcons. Even disregarding current form, I'd have thought the other way round would make more sense.

Very possibly - what I've tended to do when compiling the roadmap is to look at the opponents' league position over the last couple of years. Even three or four years ago, I'd have had it the other way round but Falcons have been very good the last couple of seasons - and have given us a lot of grief - while Welford Road is no longer the fortress it once was.

I also have to allocate a certain number of points across all the matches, and obviously I need to do so in a way that's consistent with how points are actually awarded. Since a score of 2 can only be a double BP loss or a draw, and 3 is a BP draw, all of which are pretty unlikely, I tend to allocate 0, 1, 4 or 5 for a game.

That means that sometimes I end up having to put in an unexpected loss to make the totals balance - rest assured that it's a statistical anomaly to balance the books rather than a realistic prediction!
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Bolly-Quin

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Re: Gussy's Roadmap 2020-21
« Reply #11 on: Monday 08-Mar-2021, 18:09* »
So according to this, for top 4 we need 6 wins from out remaining 10 games. Seems very doable.

The roadmap suggests we ought to win away against Tigers but lose at home to Falcons. Even disregarding current form, I'd have thought the other way round would make more sense.

We've got some tough away fixtures to come - Exe (2), Bristol (1), Sale (4), Irish (6) and Tigers (8) - the rest, including the present bottom 4 are (obviously) at home; targeting winning all home games plus Irish and Tigers. Exe are ominously regaining their form, but have lost a few at home this season - win that and anything is possible...

quins4life

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Re: 2020-21 Roadmap
« Reply #12 on: Monday 08-Mar-2021, 18:27* »
So 26 points needed to get into top 4 if we go off this. With 10 games to go this feels doable. Although I think we may get it with less considering how competitive the league is... this is where I see the points coming from:

Exeter (a)- 1 point
Glos (h)- 5
Bristol (a)- 0
Wuss (h)- 5
Irish (a)- 1
Wasps (h)- 4
Leicester (a)- 4
Bath (h)- 4
Sale (a)- 1
Newcastle (h)- 4

Should see us getting around 29 points from our remaining fixtures. Next 4 games I think will be the difference between top 4 and potentially a charge for top 2....  home games should be fully targeted though. All winnable from me and, depending on conditions, could be TBP opportunities

Bolly-Quin

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Re: 2020-21 Roadmap
« Reply #13 on: Monday 08-Mar-2021, 18:42* »
...

Should see us getting around 29 points from our remaining fixtures. Next 4 games I think will be the difference between top 4 and potentially a charge for top 2....  home games should be fully targeted though. All winnable from me and, depending on conditions, could be TBP opportunities

I think we have more or at least as much chance of getting an LBP against Bristol than Exeter.

We always struggle against Worcester - they seem, like Irish to be a bogey team for us. Having said that, I'd be hoping for wins against both Irish and Worcester - if we cant beat them, then top 2 isn't likely although we might scrape 4th.

Nico Wilson

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Re: 2020-21 Roadmap
« Reply #14 on: Sunday 30-May-2021, 05:27* »
So according to this, for top 4 we need 6 wins from out remaining 10 games. Seems very doable.

The roadmap suggests we ought to win away against Tigers but lose at home to Falcons. Even disregarding current form, I'd have thought the other way round would make more sense.

Agreed

 

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