Right. I’m a bit late with this this year, caught unawares by the short cutover between seasons. So let’s get to it.
How’s it work, mister?You can’t win every match, especially against Exeter, and some games are easier than others. So to give us an indication of how the season is going, we look at how we tend to do against various teams and combine that with a slightly more scientific view of how many points you need to finish at various places in the table.
That enables us to look at the table after a sobering defeat and realise that, actually, we can take the hit and still do OK, or to add a little extra excitement to an unexpected win.
So what do we need this year?Last year had an exceptional feel to the table on account of a certain side who I have it on good legal advice were absolutely not breaking the salary cap and in fact very much did not break it for several years nevertheless copping a whopping points deduction for some reason wholly unrelated to being systematic and persistent cheats for a very long time.
You’d expect that to distort the target table but in fact the statistics are pretty robust:
Year | Relegated | 11th | 7th | 5th | 2nd |
2019-20 | -38 | 29 | 46 | 64 | 74 |
2018-19 | 31 | 41 | 55 | 56 | 78 |
2017-18 | 22 | 36 | 56 | 63 | 77 |
2016-17 | 20 | 33 | 52 | 59 | 84 |
2015-16 | 20 | 27 | 55 | 60 | 74 |
2014-15 | 1 | 34 | 54 | 68 | 75 |
2013-14 | 16 | 22 | 49 | 67 | 78 |
2012-13 | 23 | 33 | 53 | 60 | 74 |
2011-12 | 32 | 33 | 46 | 59 | 74 |
2010-11 | 23 | 23 | 52 | 62 | 76 |
2009-10 | 28 | 32 | 48 | 57 | 71 |
2008-09 | 17 | 34 | 53 | 61 | 66 |
2007-08 | 12 | 34 | 59 | 63 | 70 |
2006-07 | 33 | 34 | 51 | 61 | 71 |
2005-06 | 27 | 41 | 45 | 56 | 66 |
2004-05 | 38 | 40 | 47 | 57 | 73 |
2003-04 | 3 | 37 | 53 | 55 | 73 |
2002-03 | 34 | 36 | 42 | 56 | 62 |
Average | 19.0 | 33.3 | 50.9 | 60.2 | 73.1 |
Std Dev | 17.0 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 4.9 |
Target | 36 | 39 | 56 | 64 | 79 |
19-20 | 33 | 39 | 56 | 64 | 79 |
The relegation number has swung around a bit, but we calibrate the targets on what it takes to be secure in 11th, and in that and all the other slots the numbers are unchanged.
So how will the season go? | | | | Position / Target | | 39 | | 56 | | 64 | | 79 | |
Round | Date | Home team | Away team | Points / End of season total | 11th | 39 | 6th | 55 | 4th | 64 | 1st | 79 | Actual | Total |
1 | 20/11/2020 | Harlequins | Exeter Chiefs | Premiership | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 28/11/2020 | Northampton Saints | Harlequins | Premiership | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
3 | 06/12/2020 | Gloucester Rugby | Harlequins | Premiership | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
4 | 26/12/2020 | Harlequins | Bristol Bears | Premiership | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
5 | 01/01/2021 | Worcester Warriors | Harlequins | Premiership | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 12 |
6 | 10/01/2021 | Harlequins | London Irish | Premiership | 4 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 19 | 2 | 14 |
7 | 29/01/2021 | Wasps | Harlequins | Premiership | 1 | 9 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 23 | 5 | 19 |
8 | 05/02/2021 | Bath Rugby | Harlequins | Premiership | 1 | 10 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 27 | 4 | 23 |
9 | 12/02/2021 | Harlequins | Leicester Tigers | Premiership | 4 | 14 | 4 | 21 | 4 | 24 | 5 | 32 | 5 | 28 |
10 | 19/02/2021 | Harlequins | Sale Sharks | Premiership | 4 | 18 | 4 | 25 | 4 | 28 | 4 | 36 | 4 | 32 |
11 | 26/02/2021 | Newcastle Falcons | Harlequins | Premiership | 1 | 19 | 1 | 26 | 4 | 32 | 4 | 40 | 1 | 33 |
12 | 05/03/2021 | Harlequins | Northampton Saints | Premiership | 4 | 23 | 4 | 30 | 4 | 36 | 4 | 44 | 5 | 38 |
13 | 12/03/2021 | Exeter Chiefs | Harlequins | Premiership | 1 | 24 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 45 | 1 | 39 |
14 | 19/03/2021 | Harlequins | Gloucester Rugby | Premiership | 1 | 25 | 1 | 32 | 4 | 41 | 4 | 49 | 5 | 44 |
15 | 26/03/2021 | Bristol Bears | Harlequins | Premiership | 1 | 26 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 50 | 1 | 45 |
16 | 16/04/2021 | Harlequins | Worcester Warriors | Premiership | 4 | 30 | 4 | 37 | 4 | 46 | 5 | 55 | 5 | 50 |
17 | 23/04/2021 | London Irish | Harlequins | Premiership | 1 | 31 | 4 | 41 | 4 | 50 | 4 | 59 | 4 | 54 |
18 | 07/05/2021 | Harlequins | Wasps | Premiership | 4 | 35 | 4 | 45 | 4 | 54 | 4 | 63 | 5 | 59 |
19 | 14/05/2021 | Leicester Tigers | Harlequins | Premiership | 1 | 36 | 4 | 49 | 4 | 58 | 4 | 67 | 2 | 61 |
20 | 28/05/2021 | Harlequins | Bath Rugby | Premiership | 1 | 37 | 4 | 53 | 4 | 62 | 4 | 71 | 5 | 66 |
21 | 04/06/2021 | Sale Sharks | Harlequins | Premiership | 1 | 38 | 1 | 54 | 1 | 63 | 4 | 75 | 0 | 66 |
22 | 13/06/2021 | Harlequins | Newcastle Falcons | Premiership | 1 | 39 | 1 | 55 | 1 | 64 | 4 | 79 | 5 | 71 |
SF | 19/06/2021 | Bristol Bears | Harlequins | WON - FINALISTS |
F | 26/06/2021 | Exeter Chiefs | Harlequins | WON - CHAMPIONS |
Well, the season’s over and it reached quite a satisfactory end for us Quins fans.
I thought it was worth updating the table one last time for the record books. At the time of the last update, a fourth place finish was looking likely, but there were some big questions still to be answered. Could we find the right centre pairing to compensate for the loss of Andre? Could someone fill the enormous hole left by Mike Brown’s red card and subsequent ban? Could Jack Kenningham continue to perform at a level that belied his tender years? And could Quins win a probably semi-final against Bristol AND a probable final against Exeter on successive weeks?
The answers were, in order:
Yes - though it took a nervous three games for the coaches to settle on what was obvious to the fans: the midfield worked much better with Ben Tapuai on the pitch;
Yes - Tyrone Green made the shirt his own, though he can expect competition for it from Louis Lynagh and, next season, Nick David
Yes - Kenningham has looked more and more assured with every performance and the coaches will have the best kind of headache perming two from Evans, Chisholm and Kenningham when they are all fit
Yes - eventually - though it was well worth every agonising minute of one of the best games of rugby in history.
YES!
Ultimately, to win the title Quins had to beat the two best teams in the league on successive weekends and did so in considerable style, with young homegrown players making a considerable contribution but no-one epitomising the team’s effort more than one of the four survivors of the 2012 Final.
Joe Marler played an astonishing 180 minutes of rugby across the two games, outscrummaged three international tightheads (including erstwhile Quins, England and Lions teammate Kyle Sinckler) and delivered numerous devastating tackles at crucial moments throughout both games, before delivering a post match speech in the way that only Joe Marler can.
He even turned up to the final having rolled back the years to restore his signature hairstyle (accompanied by eldest son Jasper), which allows me to resurrect the moniker bestowed on him by Mark Durden-Smith at the 2012 End of Season Dinner: Mohawked Wonderprop, we salute you!
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