I think we should be fine for 4th and an away semi to Exeter.
Our last 5 matches have yield 16 points, average 3.2 per match (yes with a bad loss to Gloucester)
We need 12 points (imho) to hold 4th in the league which would be an average of 2.4 points per match.
12 points come from the basis that either Sale or Northampton wont win 5 games in a row and even with 4 wins would only amass a total of circa 18 points (including 2 BP from the four wins or two loses) giving them 59 points, Quins already on 49 points with 12 points would take us to 61 so a couple of points cushions encase of Sales/Northampton picking up a couple of extra BP's.
I personally think 12 points from the next 5 games is what we need and we have averaged 2.9 points a game so far this season so a 2.4 average for the last 5 will be fine.
Thoughts or corrections welcome!?