ComeAllWithin
Rugby => ComeAllWithin Board => Topic started by: Chipstead Quin on Wednesday 08-Jul-2020, 17:20*
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THe KCL report is based on respondents to the Covid Symptoms app!
https://covid.joinzoe.com/?fbclid=IwAR2H94FC_iYBrvRI5ItPiXq2uft5HOLYugGgomcg_icJ992ylGOGq2OekJo
It has several million reporting on it every day. So they have lots of data.
If anyone has any ill health symptoms then they are asked if they would like to have a Covid test.
I had a headache and a sore throat once and I did take the test (it was negative of course)
They are also asking participants if they would be willing to take part in early vaccine trials!!
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There are 200,000+ tests per day and 0.25% (500'ish) are positive, so the overall positive is low. If there are then 6 'types' then the number with symptoms again looks, mathematically, to be very low.
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KCL uses the term 'types'. So, yes, my terminology is incorrect. For type 6, nearly half of people end up in hospital:
"(severe level three, abdominal and respiratory): Headache, loss of smell, loss of appetite, cough, fever, hoarseness, sore throat, chest pain, fatigue, confusion, muscle pain, shortness of breath, diarrhea, abdominal pain."
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According to Kings College, there are 6 district strains of the disease. Each strain has a different outcome. It is probable that Leicester has been hit by a specific strain.
Not different strains but different cluster of symptoms. No evidence of any viral differences to cause that response. It is probably differences in the response of the individuals to infection. Genetic make up/ Pre existing conditions/ Viral load etc.
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According to Kings College, there are 6 district strains of the disease. Each strain has a different outcome. It is probable that Leicester has been hit by a specific strain.
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As an additional anecdotal story, my elderly aunt (99 yrs) who is a resident of a Leicester nursing home has been tested a few times.
The most recent result which came back on Monday was positive! Along with a number of others at the home.
As you might imagine this sparked a real sense of alarm with her relatives along with significant upheaval in the care facility itself.
Oddly enough no one in the home has any symptoms!
The home has been told that they will be supplied with new tests from a different provider!
It's interesting that the overall Leicester "outbreak" has not sparked any rise in hospital admissions or deaths. The party line from PHE is that the infections are in "younger " people and that accounts for it.
Hmmm??
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Premiership Rugby reveal nine new cases of coronavirus among players and staff in second round of testing
Seven players and two non-playing staff tested positive in the league's first round of testing since a return to contact training
By
Kate Rowan
15 July 2020 • 4:52pm
In its second round of testing and its first since a return to contact training, Premiership Rugby has announced a further nine positive cases of coronavirus including seven players and two non-playing staff.
The tests were carried out on Monday with 856 players and club staff tested. Last week, in its first round of testing, which was conducted on July 6 while clubs were still in stage one of return to play, 10 positive cases came back out of a total of 805 personnel tested.
In a statement released by Premiership Rugby, the league did not disclose the specific individuals or affected clubs
Premiership Rugby has confirmed that the seven players and two support staff will now, along with their “close contacts”, including family members, self-isolate for a fortnight as was the case with the 10 who tested positive for the virus last week.
“Close contacts” could also include other players with whom those infected have been in physical contact, such as via training. With the return of contact training in stage two, there will be particular concerns if any of the positive results came from a forward involved in close-contact scrummaging or mauling practice. However, a sophisticated track-and-trace system has been put in place which will involve close analysis of GPS data and training ground video footage to ensure players who have been in close contact with those who have tested positive can be identified and alerted as swiftly as possible.
The positive infection rate has dropped slightly from last week, from 1.2 per cent to 1.05 per cent, which is still higher than the levels recorded by the Premier League at a similar stage before top-flight football’s return to action. Randox Health carries out the testing at an approximated cost of £100,000 per week to Premiership Rugby.
Despite these latest positive results, the Premiership is still on track for its behind-closed-doors return date of August 14, when Harlequins will face Sale at the Twickenham Stoop ahead of a full weekend’s action that will comprise the first of nine remaining rounds of regular season fixtures.
That bit may have to change, given the statement from the Government yesterday... (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/update-on-randox-test-kits)
Update on Randox test kits
Notification of issue relating to test kits produced by Randox laboratories
Published 15 July 2020
From:
Department of Health and Social Care
placeholder
NHS Test and Trace has been notified that some test kits produced by Randox laboratories may not meet our required safety standards for coronavirus testing. Alongside the Lighthouse Laboratories, NHS Test and Trace has a separate contractual arrangement with Randox laboratories. As a precautionary measure and while we investigate further, NHS Test and Trace are requesting that all settings pause the use of Randox test kits with immediate effect and until further notice.
The risk to safety is low and test results from Randox kits are not affected.
We will be supporting all testing settings to receive replacement kits as soon as possible.
This request only applies to unused Randox test kits, which are clearly marked with that name. Used Randox test kits can still be collected for processing as normal.
All other kits from NHS Test and Trace can continue to be used for testing.
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Premiership Rugby reveal nine new cases of coronavirus among players and staff in second round of testing
Seven players and two non-playing staff tested positive in the league's first round of testing since a return to contact training
By
Kate Rowan
15 July 2020 • 4:52pm
In its second round of testing and its first since a return to contact training, Premiership Rugby has announced a further nine positive cases of coronavirus including seven players and two non-playing staff.
The tests were carried out on Monday with 856 players and club staff tested. Last week, in its first round of testing, which was conducted on July 6 while clubs were still in stage one of return to play, 10 positive cases came back out of a total of 805 personnel tested.
In a statement released by Premiership Rugby, the league did not disclose the specific individuals or affected clubs
Premiership Rugby has confirmed that the seven players and two support staff will now, along with their “close contacts”, including family members, self-isolate for a fortnight as was the case with the 10 who tested positive for the virus last week.
“Close contacts” could also include other players with whom those infected have been in physical contact, such as via training. With the return of contact training in stage two, there will be particular concerns if any of the positive results came from a forward involved in close-contact scrummaging or mauling practice. However, a sophisticated track-and-trace system has been put in place which will involve close analysis of GPS data and training ground video footage to ensure players who have been in close contact with those who have tested positive can be identified and alerted as swiftly as possible.
The positive infection rate has dropped slightly from last week, from 1.2 per cent to 1.05 per cent, which is still higher than the levels recorded by the Premier League at a similar stage before top-flight football’s return to action. Randox Health carries out the testing at an approximated cost of £100,000 per week to Premiership Rugby.
Despite these latest positive results, the Premiership is still on track for its behind-closed-doors return date of August 14, when Harlequins will face Sale at the Twickenham Stoop ahead of a full weekend’s action that will comprise the first of nine remaining rounds of regular season fixtures.
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The chance of anyone getting it is low so a player or back room getting it when they have been pretty much isolated is certainly low.
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My daughter (a doctor) got COVID-19. End of her first week, she still tested positive. End of second week she still tested positive. Halfway through third week still tested positive, but at that point they changed the rules and let her go back to work and she hasn't been tested since. But there's a difference between being infective (effectively first 7 days of symptoms or a positive test) and testing positive.
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Just reading about some Argentine fishermen. Left for sea with no positive cases, returned from sea after 35 days "In isolation" with positive cases. Confusion over how it has happened!!!
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Exactly! The false positive rate is quite high so the probability is that none of the 10 actually have it!
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Whoever it was at the club has been re-tested and has been cleared of having the virus (https://www.quins.co.uk/news/covid-19-testing-harlequins-remain-coronavirus-free-in-first-round-of-testing)
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The difference here between rugby & football is that positions are so specialist in rugby, especially the most at risk positions, the front row. If someone in your front row gets it, the chances of it spreading via scrum practice to take out 2 full front rows must be significant.
So, while you might only be down a small proportion of your full squad, you can be very much weakened. You'd expect that they've thought through what they'll do if this happens.
Apparently not - I've posted on a separate thread that the research has been done and found that the risk of transmission is actually pretty low in the scrum itself. It's the hanging around for restarts and the yappy little scrum halves that spread disease...
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The difference here between rugby & football is that positions are so specialist in rugby, especially the most at risk positions, the front row. If someone in your front row gets it, the chances of it spreading via scrum practice to take out 2 full front rows must be significant.
So, while you might only be down a small proportion of your full squad, you can be very much weakened. You'd expect that they've thought through what they'll do if this happens.
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So, in theory, if a forward tests positive for COVID-19 and we are close contact training then we could lose our pack for a fortnight. Not a problem now, but as we approach the 10 August league re-start day I wonder what would happen? Would this then mean that the 10 August start date would be deferred? Or would we have to concede games?
Yes, that would be a problem. I guess the aim is to avoid it - the testing regime ought to filter out anyone who's positive, and once the players move into the "bubble" of contact training they should be being very careful to manage their own contact outside of the ground.
If a team did have to isolate a large chunk of the squad, I imagine that the league would have some sort of provision for it. Not sure if there's schedule for it to be replayed, so they might have to concede.
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Do they have any symptoms?
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Was always going to happen to someone. Football managed it very well. I could be wrong but I think because the testing is regular, the need for people to isolate if they come into contact is not like it would be for "normal" people
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So, in theory, if a forward tests positive for COVID-19 and we are close contact training then we could lose our pack for a fortnight. Not a problem now, but as we approach the 10 August league re-start day I wonder what would happen? Would this then mean that the 10 August start date would be deferred? Or would we have to concede games?
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According to the report in the Grauniad, these tests *were* done before the move to phase 2 of returning to training
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Could potentially wreak havoc in a squad though in terms of self-isolation required - if one player catches it, how many other players have they likely come into contact with that then have to quarantine? And as return to training moves through the phases, the Prem squads will be training all together again. If one player catches it at that point, you're looking at cancelled games.
That's without even mentioning the various stages of preparation different player groups will be at depending on whether or not they have had to quarantine for 2 weeks at any given time. Bit of a mare really.
I would hope that they did the tests *before* moving to the phase of training that requires close contact, and will continue to test players regularly as each phase progresses.
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Could potentially wreak havoc in a squad though in terms of self-isolation required - if one player catches it, how many other players have they likely come into contact with that then have to quarantine? And as return to training moves through the phases, the Prem squads will be training all together again. If one player catches it at that point, you're looking at cancelled games.
That's without even mentioning the various stages of preparation different player groups will be at depending on whether or not they have had to quarantine for 2 weeks at any given time. Bit of a mare really.
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so 1.2% of those tested have it, not a high percentage. If they keep testing then they should be able to keep it even lower. It is not realistic to say there will be no one with it out there.
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Whoever it is, I hope they have a speedy recovery. (And indeed everyone who has caught it).
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Quins have confirmed that one of them is us...
https://www.quins.co.uk/news/update-on-covid-testing/
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/53336575
Six players and four non-playing members of staff have tested positive after the first round of Premiership Rugby's coronavirus testing.
A total of 804 tests were carried out across the 12 clubs on Monday.
Saracens confirmed "one or more" staff members tested positive, but no players, and Harlequins said a "member of the club" was also among them.
The season was suspended in March and Premiership Rugby hopes to resume the league on the weekend of 15 August.
"We have to respect patient confidentiality so we won't be naming the person or people involved," Saracens said in a statement.
"The individuals will now go into isolation along with any others identified as close contacts in both their team and household settings. This is informed by protocols established with Public Health England (PHE) and Track and Trace."
Premiership teams were told at the start of June that they could begin socially-distanced non-contact training in small groups, and were able to progress to close-contact training from Monday onwards.
Leicester Tigers and England scrum-half Ben Youngs told the BBC: "I'd probably be naive to think that out of 800 tests you aren't going to get a few [positives].
"But I think what's important are the protocols of what happens next. You don't want that 10 to be 30 next week, then 80, and then we are in a spot of bother.
"But rugby does need to get back up and running. The clubs need it, everyone needs it, so we need that to be as diligent as possible across all the clubs to allow that.
"Hopefully people follow the protocols to make sure next week it isn't any larger than that."