ComeAllWithin
Rugby => ComeAllWithin Board => Topic started by: simjam on Sunday 17-Feb-2019, 13:23*
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The way this season is going i reckon 62 points will be a top 4 spot this year.
So 5 more wins and 4 more bonus points then.
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ok.
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Interesting to check out the roadmap, conceived before a ball was kicked this season.
Click for the roadmap (https://comeallwithin.createaforum.com/index.php?action=ezportal;sa=page;p=3)
This suggested 64 was the figure needed, and suggests we should be on 42 points at this point (as opposed to our actual 38) if we want a top 4 place.
it suggests we'll win Bristol (H), Gloucester (H), Saints (H) and Tigers (H). So we need a win from Bath (A), Saracens (A), Sale (A), Exeter (A) or Wasps (A). Am I being hopelessly optimistic to say I believe we can win those home games and then pick up a couple of away wins?
In which case a top 4 place is a distinct likelihood!
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It’s ambitious, but I wouldn’t say it’s ‘hopelessly optimistic’. Right now, I think we can feel reasonably confident about our ability to win our home games and all of our remaining fixtures at the Stoop are against teams that are below us in the table (largely because of their away form).
Without wanting to make this too geeky, our current win percentage is 54.8% (7 wins form 13 games). To get 5 wins from the remaining 9, it would need to be 55% so it’s very close.
On the one hand, you could argue that we have more away fixtures at the end of the season which may negatively impact our chances. However, on the other, I’d argue that we’re quite a bit better than we were in the first quarter of the season.
We’ve also scored 10 bonus points this season which is excellent (Exeter are the only team with more). If you extrapolate that out across the 13 fixtures played it’s roughly .77 bonus points per game. Across the remaining 9 games, a similar return would give us 6.93 bonus points. Even if we round that down, it’s more than the 4 DOK suggested we need.
I think we can win the four home games and pick up at least 1 BP. That’s another 21 points. I also think we can one of our away games - Bath, Sale and Wasps are all beatable IMO. If we win one of those and pick up at least one more losing BP, that gives another 5 points and the magic number of 64.
In summary, ambitious; yes, impossible; no.
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Yes I'd say optimistic, but not improbable. We should win our home games and I agree that Sale, Wasps and Bath are all vulnerable.
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Oops, just realised I gave us an extra home fixture in my points round up.
That means we’d need 4 more BPs to hit the magic number of 64.
Looking at the table, 60 could well be enough for 4th.
Wasps points difference is -36 which seems crazy for a team in 5th.
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Bit like their -£48M finances...