ComeAllWithin
Rugby => ComeAllWithin Board => Topic started by: DOK on Monday 02-Mar-2020, 11:00*
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UK Government considers banning sporting events (https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/entire-six-nations-could-called-17844242)
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Seems like an overreaction to a virus that is according to statistics less dangerous than seasonal flu.
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Frankly theres a massive over-reaction. Yes its contagious but no more lethal to the young or elderly than the flu.
Still, the Chinese government will be happy of the effect of their lab created soon to be pandemic to wipe trillions off the global economy.
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Seems like an overreaction to a virus that is according to statistics less dangerous than seasonal flu.
In your chicken lickin world of falling skies, is the earth flat too? Are Spurs top of the league? Is the cheque in the post? Do bears use the lavatories with the seat down or up? Is the Pope a Jain?
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Still, the Chinese government will be happy of the effect of their lab created soon to be pandemic to wipe trillions off the global economy.
The Chinese stand to lose out the most from nearly 6 weeks of non-functioning economy, so why would they devise a lab stunt like that, set it on their own people and then watch it kill 3000 of their people? Your flux capacitors need recalibrating, methinks.
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Seems like an overreaction to a virus that is according to statistics less dangerous than seasonal flu.
Yes, it is worse than the flu: busting the coronavirus myths (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/02/worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths-face-masks-vaccine-covid-19)
It also depends on your age. (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51540981)
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Given that graph starts to kick in for 50+ ages, I'd suggest most of our support is at an increased level of risk! :)
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I've been looking for some stats that won't offend political persuasions, so opted for those from Johns Hopkins University Hospital in the US - still quite conservative, but away from UK-base reporting and from country that keeps good stats on these aspects of medical importance.
Even though its headline (https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu) suggests that "As of Feb. 28, 2020, the flu is showing much more of an impact on Americans than COVID-19", its owns stats reveal:-
Covid 19 worldwide - death rate 0.03/infection (based on 3000 deaths and ~85,000 cases)
Flu cases in US - death rate: 0.0013/infection (based on 61,000 deaths and ~45m cases)
So ~ 25 times more deadly compared to US flu; estimates so far suggest death rates between 2-5% - much high than these, so probably not an over-reaction - we're just at the start of the epidemic. let alone the potential pandemic.
But don't worry, Rocker Boris says all you have to do is sing happy birthday a few times whilst washing your hands and the sky won't fall on your head.
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I've been looking for some stats that won't offend political persuasions, so opted for those from Johns Hopkins University Hospital in the US - still quite conservative, but away from UK-base reporting and from country that keeps good stats on these aspects of medical importance.
Even though its headline (https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu) suggests that "As of Feb. 28, 2020, the flu is showing much more of an impact on Americans than COVID-19", its owns stats reveal:-
Covid 19 worldwide - death rate 0.03/infection (based on 3000 deaths and ~85,000 cases)
Flu cases in US - death rate: 0.0013/infection (based on 61,000 deaths and ~45m cases)
So ~ 25 times more deadly compared to US flu; estimates so far suggest death rates between 2-5% - much high than these, so probably not an over-reaction - we're just at the start of the epidemic. let alone the potential pandemic.
But don't worry, Rocker Boris says all you have to do is sing happy birthday a few times whilst washing your hands and the sky won't fall on your head.
As with all stats, there re several ways to interpret them. For example, the number of cases could suggest that it's much harder to catch. Similarly, what would the stats be for malaria, for example? Or SARS? Or MRSA?
The fatality rate needs to be taken into account with the cantagion rate. Also, what other factors were involved? Existing complications? What are the fatality rates across age bands etc?
It's all too easy to say it's worse than/not as bad as flu. It's like saying aeroplanes are not as bad as roof tiles.
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The main problem is that no one has any immunity as new bug and the flu jab does not help either. It’s not dangerous but it could shut offices and shops
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It is worse than normal flu which you can protect yourself from by having a flu jab. A lot of vulnerable people have the option of this. There is no vaccine for corona virus as yet. If we take no precautions and a quarter of the population contract the virus the mere 3% death rate would be around 450,000. Those of you who think there is an over reaction are obviously ok with being partly responsible for killing people because you don’t think it’s necessary to take any precautions because YOU think you will be alright.
I’m sure the medical experts know what they are doing and are advising governments accordingly.
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I think you're right Major West. Getting on for half a million deaths is unthinkable. However, as I understand it, viruses are simple stands of DNA in a protective shell, and have the ability to mutate relatively easily. That's why the flu strain tends to be different each winter. If (and it's a big if) the current coronavirus mutates into a more virulent form, then the number of casualties could quickly escalate. That's one of the major risk identified by the World Health Organisation. If you think the WHO are being alarmist, google 'Spanish Flu'. Let's hope, come the warmer weather, it dies out, as happened with SARS.
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It is worse than normal flu which you can protect yourself from by having a flu jab. A lot of vulnerable people have the option of this. There is no vaccine for corona virus as yet. If we take no precautions and a quarter of the population contract the virus the mere 3% death rate would be around 450,000. Those of you who think there is an over reaction are obviously ok with being partly responsible for killing people because you don’t think it’s necessary to take any precautions because YOU think you will be alright.
I’m sure the medical experts know what they are doing and are advising governments accordingly.
"...obviously ok with being partly responsible for killing people..."
Do you know how ridiculous that sounds?
I'm "vulnerable" apparently, and I get a flu jab every year. I still get flu occasionally. And since there's no vaccination (yet) for corona, presumably you blame anyone who's contracted it for the deaths that have occurred so far?
People making hysterical statements is what causes these situations to bring the country to its knees.
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People who think the press might sensationalise something are responsible for other people's deaths. You read a lot of odd stuff on these boards bit that's up there
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"...obviously ok with being partly responsible for killing people..."
Do you know how ridiculous that sounds?
I'm "vulnerable" apparently, and I get a flu jab every year. I still get flu occasionally. And since there's no vaccination (yet) for corona, presumably you blame anyone who's contracted it for the deaths that have occurred so far?
People making hysterical statements is what causes these situations to bring the country to its knees.
Actually I'm fairly sure that the health services being swamped because of critical mass of people getting ill - many of them critically - is what causes these situations bringing the country to its knees.
Someone making a silly statement on the Quins board isn't going to make a bit of difference either way.
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Well the 6N is going ahead, frankly can't see the point in cancelling matches when there are still daily flights around the world to and from existing hit spots....
DOK that garuiand article was full of "suggests that" "if's" etc. Hardly compelling evidence. It is also contradicted by the information in the BBC article, which does indeed however indicate that older people seem to be more at risk. Not entirely surprising as the older one gets the more health complications one tends to have. The flu does just the same.
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Quinky - are you one of Cummings “Special Advisors”?
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Actually I'm fairly sure that the health services being swamped because of critical mass of people getting ill - many of them critically - is what causes these situations bringing the country to its knees.
Someone making a silly statement on the Quins board isn't going to make a bit of difference either way.
I didn't mention the Quins board.
Hysteria starts with people misunderstanding, then using hyperbole. This leads individuals to rush to their GP every time they get a sniffle. It also leads to people staying home because they're afraid to share a bus with other people. It's that type of action borne out of the initial hysteria that cripples the country. You see similar reaction when there's a weather forecast of half an inch of snow, and people clear the supermarket shelves to stock up, because they're afraid of being snowed in.
Suggesting that "thinking that there's an over reaction" equates to "...obviously ok with being partly responsible for killing people..." is definitely hysteria.
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It would be far more sensible to refuse tickets to the elderly.
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It would be far more sensible to refuse tickets to the elderly.
That'd reduce the turnout for our home games even further!
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For 6 nations games?
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COVID-19 isn't the worse epidemic of modern times and won't be.
It is worse than the flu, being very infectious and quite a bit more virulent than most flu strains. However, the mortality rate in reality will be nowhere near 5 or even 2%. The worrying reason for that is that we will be inherently massively underestimating the number of cases (lots of people with mild symptoms won't present and some will and won't have been tested for various reasons and even more will be asymptomatic), whilst probably about right on the number of deaths.
The damage it will really do will be through our stretched system. Currently 5% of cases get critically sick (probably actually less) but they will need HDU level care at least and we don't have any HDU/ICU capacity left in the country, both in equipment, physical appropriate spaces and most importantly in trained critical care nurses.
It won't be the Black Death but it's a good enough reason to cancel an international sports tournament
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As with all stats, there re several ways to interpret them. For example, the number of cases could suggest that it's much harder to catch. Similarly, what would the stats be for malaria, for example? Or SARS? Or MRSA?
The fatality rate needs to be taken into account with the cantagion rate. Also, what other factors were involved? Existing complications? What are the fatality rates across age bands etc?
It's all too easy to say it's worse than/not as bad as flu. It's like saying aeroplanes are not as bad as roof tiles.
Yes you can chose to interpret them differently - if you want to deliberately misrepresent facts. The Covid virus has been out of China for a month or two - the geometric progression of increasing cases (unless stopped by action) will quickly spread the disease. It's not harder to catch - it's just that the epidemic is in its infancy. The rates for flu in the US were per annum. The fatality rates are included. It is too early to say much about the contagion rate, but it is surely irrelevant in attempting to define fatality rates (known deaths/known cases).
Flu and Covid 19 are both flu-type infections: an aeroplane is a manmade device to carry people around while a tile is rebaked clay sitting passively on a roof. There are very different and comparisons are churlish.
It seems that you have taken a page from Kellyanne Conway's play book of offering alternative facts.
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Six Nations confirm fixtures will go ahead despite coronavirus fears (https://www.rugbypass.com/news/six-nations-fixtures-will-go-ahead-despite-coronavirus-fears-reports)
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Yes you can chose to interpret them differently - if you want to deliberately misrepresent facts. The Covid virus has been out of China for a month or two - the geometric progression of increasing cases (unless stopped by action) will quickly spread the disease. It's not harder to catch - it's just that the epidemic is in its infancy. The rates for flu in the US were per annum. The fatality rates are included. It is too early to say much about the contagion rate, but it is surely irrelevant in attempting to define fatality rates (known deaths/known cases).
Flu and Covid 19 are both flu-type infections: an aeroplane is a manmade device to carry people around while a tile is rebaked clay sitting passively on a roof. There are very different and comparisons are churlish.
It seems that you have taken a page from Kellyanne Conway's play book of offering alternative facts.
Bolly, you hit the nail on the head. "It is too early to know the contagion rate". You also mention "known" cases, and as CJ points out in the post before yours, there will be lots of people who contract it but don't visit a doctor. Same with flu.
And tiles can be slate.
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Also it is much late for "Entire Six Nations could be called off", because a number of games have already taken place.
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Just imagine all the "interesting" posts we will have here if we are forced to self-isolate at home ;D
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The Guardian is reporting: "England's Mako Vunipola self-isolating amid coronavirus fears" see here https://bit.ly/2vCt1eV.
Precautionary only.
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Bolly, you hit the nail on the head. "It is too early to know the contagion rate". You also mention "known" cases, and as CJ points out in the post before yours, there will be lots of people who contract it but don't visit a doctor. Same with flu.
And tiles can be slate.
The contagion rate is irrelevant when looking at mortality rates.
And no, slate is not a tile - it’s a slate, viz slate roof or tiled roof. Slate is natural and a tile is man made as opposed to split and cut.
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I’m sorry , I didn’t realise that being responsible for spreading serious viruses that can kill vulnerable people was ridiculous. I apologise for thinking that reckless behaviour by possible carriers is partly their fault if their actions lead to somebody’s death.
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https://www.stone-directuk.com/slate-tiles?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1NaZ84D_5wIVSrDtCh0n2wTAEAAYASAAEgJlX_D_BwE
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https://www.stone-directuk.com/slate-tiles?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1NaZ84D_5wIVSrDtCh0n2wTAEAAYASAAEgJlX_D_BwE
LOL. A fair cop! But they are known as floor tiles. A roofer told me once before he died...
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I’m sorry , I didn’t realise that being responsible for spreading serious viruses that can kill vulnerable people was ridiculous. I apologise for thinking that reckless behaviour by possible carriers is partly their fault if their actions lead to somebody’s death.
You may have unwittingly spread the flu virus before. You may be aware that people die from flu. Does that make you responsible for their deaths?
If you're on the motorway and someone dies in a crash, your vehicle may have leaked oil which caused a car to skid. Are you responsible for their death?
If yo drive a car, are you responsible for people's breathing problems due to exhaust fumes? (Check the stats on people suffering respiratory issues).
I assume you spend all day at home in a darkened room, for fear that ANY actions might cause death or disaster.
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Oh dear.
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Italy v England now behind closed doors.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51737430
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Never has the term 'keep calm and carry on!' feel so relevant to me.
The chief scientific advisor to the government said potentially 500000 could die if the mortality rate is the same.
These are generally include the same people that would be knocked over by the flu, pneumonia other viruses etc... so statistically it is probably not another 500000 new people predicted to die.
Very sad, but these are the most vulnerable in society.
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When they create a vaccine don'thave it!!
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You may have unwittingly spread the flu virus before. You may be aware that people die from flu. Does that make you responsible for their deaths?
If you're on the motorway and someone dies in a crash, your vehicle may have leaked oil which caused a car to skid. Are you responsible for their death?
If yo drive a car, are you responsible for people's brea
thing problems due to exhaust fumes? (Check the stats on people suffering respiratory issues).
The word unwittingly is the important one in your post . Would you hold me partly or wholly responsible if I had been to an area that was a virus hot spot where i knew I hadn’t taken any precautions, then felt ill on my return but not ill enough to stop me sitting next to you at the Stoop. All this knowing fully that there is an outbreak occurring. You then have the virus and pass it on yourself...........
If you had not bothered to maintain your car properly and your negligence led to the oil leak then yes you would .
I assume you spend all day at home in a darkened room, for fear that ANY actions might cause death or disaster.
Quite the opposite, I spend all day out in the open trying not to hurt or infect anybody . Isn’t it obvious that I don’t spend all day in a darkened room as if I did I would know how to post the quoty bits properly.
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Quite the opposite, I spend all day out in the open trying not to hurt or infect anybody . Isn’t it obvious that I don’t spend all day in a darkened room as if I did I would know how to post the quoty bits properly.
Ony "trying" not to hurt anybody? So you could be responsible for hundreds or thousands of deaths.
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Meanwhile, back to the original subject:
England vs Italy postponed (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/05/englands-six-nations-game-against-italy-postponed-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak)
Given that the seedings for the next RWC are to be done this summer, that's going to skew them in favour of the teams that have played Italy already.
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Meanwhile, back to the original subject:
England vs Italy postponed (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/05/englands-six-nations-game-against-italy-postponed-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak)
Given that the seedings for the next RWC are to be done this summer, that's going to skew them in favour of the teams that have played Italy already.
Do you score that many points against teams that far below you? I was under the impression - could well be wrong - that teams scored considerably more points against teams higher up the table than them, so presumably, most teams in 6 N won't gain (or fail to gain) that many points?
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Do you score that many points against teams that far below you? I was under the impression - could well be wrong - that teams scored considerably more points against teams higher up the table than them, so presumably, most teams in 6 N won't gain (or fail to gain) that many points?
You can score some points, particularly when it's an away game (as the England game is).
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Definitely postponed.
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We're comfortably 3rd in the rankings. I suppose France may have a chance to make some ground but if we beat Wales we should be ok.
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I've never really understood why the rankings need to be decided this far out from the next tournament anyway!
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Wouldn't mind a trip to Rome in warmer weather.
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I've never really understood why the rankings need to be decided this far out from the next tournament anyway!
It's to allow the organisers plenty of time to sell tickets, particularly in the case of the games between tier 3 & tier 4 teams. Plus they can firm up plans for where teams can be based in terms of training, logistics regarding ticketing, grounds being used, etc). While fottball can be guaranteed ticket sales whoever is playing at a World Cup, it can be a harder sell for tickets to, say, USA vs Tonga, so having the pools generally decided well ahead of time, the organisers will know most of the fixtures & can adjust game locations to best suit the expected attendances.
I was wrong earlier in saying the summer rankings would be used. Apparently it's the rankings at the end of the November International window.
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It's to allow the organisers plenty of time to sell tickets, particularly in the case of the games between tier 3 & tier 4 teams. Plus they can firm up plans for where teams can be based in terms of training, logistics regarding ticketing, grounds being used, etc). While fottball can be guaranteed ticket sales whoever is playing at a World Cup, it can be a harder sell for tickets to, say, USA vs Tonga, so having the pools generally decided well ahead of time, the organisers will know most of the fixtures & can adjust game locations to best suit the expected attendances.
I was wrong earlier in saying the summer rankings would be used. Apparently it's the rankings at the end of the November International window.
Understandable that there needs to be a bigger window than for a football world cup but 3 years still seems excessive to me.
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I was wrong earlier in saying the summer rankings would be used. Apparently it's the rankings at the end of the November International window.
Ummm - we've got NZ, Australia, Argentina and Tonga in the AIs. That will be a stern test but beating NZ and Australia would be great! Wales, France and Ireland all play SA, but we don't.
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Women's Six Nations: Scotland v France postponed after home player tests positive for coronavirus