Bath's decline - where last season's semi-finalists are struggling after Bristol thrashing
Bath have won just one of their six Gallagher Premiership matches so far this season on the field
By
Ben Coles,
RUGBY REPORTER
3 February 2021 • 11:07am
Bath have conceded 28 tries in six matches so far this season
Having written back in October about the sudden burst of form produced by Bath after lockdown, winning enough games to reach last season's semi-finals, those heady days felt more like a lifetime ago watching Bath capitulate against Bristol last Friday.
Now, Bristol were utterly superb for 50 minutes before coasting to the finish, something which notably irked Pat Lam post-match when you would have thought he’d be leading the race to the Thatcher’s cider, having watched his side click so well that you would be shocked if they don’t end up in the Premiership final.
But Bath were miserable. And while the loss in the first half of their two second-rows in (Bath captain) Josh McNally and Elliot Stooke was obviously not ideal, hurting a set-piece that went on to lose three lineouts, director of rugby Stuart Hooper even in the pain of defeat recognised that the big issue - his side failed to react either quickly or effectively enough to the situation in front of them.
Yes, it's worth conceding that Bath went through a nightmare situation of shutting their training ground for over a week for effectively no reason, after their round of Covid-19 testing two weeks ago allegedly returned 19 positive tests when, in fact, there was only one.
Had the Bristol thrashing been a one-off, you could probably factor in the injuries - Ruaridh McConnochie was also forced off in the first half - plus the training ground fiasco and concede that Bath had a (very) bad day at the office.
Except this Bristol game was actually the grimmest chapter in a highly concerning start to the season, with Bath now 10th in the Premiership, boasting the worst points difference in the league (unsurprisingly, after losing 48-3) and having secured only one win actually on the field, back against Worcester on December 5. Zach Mercer, one of their five try scorers that day, on top of everything confirmed this week that he will join Montpellier next season, with Jaco Coetzee arriving from the Stormers in March.
Regressing in attack
Post-lockdown, Bath were producing fewer carries but making more ground per carry, improving their efficiency with ball in hand. Passes were down but kicks were up, thanks to Ben Spencer’s game management, as Bath reduced their time of possession but doubled their average tries per game.
All of those numbers this season have dropped off, despite first-choice pairing Spencer and Rhys Priestland regularly starting at half-back, with average tries, clean breaks, defenders beaten and offloads all down.
Despite high-scoring games against Worcester and in defeat against Leicester and Wasps, 'points scored' have also dropped by a converted try per game. Speculation that attack Girvan Dempsey is set to be replaced has increased in recent weeks.
It came at the end of a hammering, granted, but when Henry Thomas lost possession with Bath camped on Bristol’s line last Friday is the kind of scenario where Bath were scoring tries late last season, having looked ruthless from short-range and through their rolling maul. Given that chance was the closest Bath got to scoring at Ashton Gate, it felt symbolic.
Set-piece stuttering
Bath’s lineout towards the end of last season was excellent, winning 93 percent of their own ball and producing on average 1.4 steals per game. You would sort of expect this, with Hooper as director of rugby and Luke Charteris, an excellent lineout operator for Wales, running the set-piece.
That success percentage has dropped this season by a considerable margin down to 82 percent, with Bath now also averaging 0.8 lineout steals. A strength has therefore wilted.
Given how proficient Bath were with their maul last season, the dip at the lineout partly explains why their try-scoring has dropped. In fact, Bath scored six tries off mauls post-lockdown, but are yet to score one from that set-piece this season.
And the scrum has also won fewer penalties compared to last season, dropping from 2.6 scrum penalties won per game to 2.0.
Defence
Factoring in that Bath are retaining less ball at the lineout and kicking from hand more, their time of possession has dropped from over on average from just over 17 minutes to 15, which has meant more time in defence. That explains why Bath are making more tackles on average, up to 141 per game compared to 123 at the end of last season. But the number of missed tackles has also rocketed, from 17 post-lockdown to 23.7 missed tackles now per game, with their overall tackle success percentage dropping as a result.
Bath have conceded an average of 45 points per game in their last three matches and 40 points or more on three occasions this season already. That is alarming. What’s more, across the regular season last year, Bath conceded 56 tries in 22 matches. This season, having played only six games, they have already conceded half that figure with 28 tries, which is more than bottom club Gloucester.
It’s easy to pick on a try like Semi Radradra’s from last Friday, when (with a run-up) he ghosted past first Jonathan Joseph and then left Josh Matavesi in an unenviable position in a one-on-one against one of the best players in the world.
It’s the overall structure of Bath’s defence that needs to be examined at this stage, because given the amount of points they are leaking, something is obviously off. Bristol worked their way around Bath’s rush defence last week, trusting that even if their passes ‘lost ground’, they would eventually get around Bath on the outside. That tactic worked on several occasions.
Availability
In some ways Bath are victims of their own success with the scrum and tight forwards since Neal Hatley's return to the club, given they are set to go through the next block of Premiership fixtures without three starters from their pack in Beno Obano, Will Stuart and Charlie Ewels, while Tom Dunn is on standby for England too ahead of the Six Nations.
Anthony Watson is another call-up, who through a combination of England duty and injuries hasn’t played more than 10 Premiership games in a season for Bath since 2015-16. Jonathan Joseph, a favourite of Eddie Jones in the past, like Dunn is also on standby, although his form seems to have dropped off in recent weeks.
Sam Underhill would have been away with England but is now out for a number of weeks with injury. More will become clear regarding the status of McNally and Stooke, plus any other knocks, following Bath's media session this week, but it’s fair to state at this point that resources in the pack are stretched ahead of facing Harlequins on Saturday.
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Given those issues another play-off run even this early in the season feels highly unlikely, with Bath as things stand closer to the bottom of the table than the top four.
