Chiefs beat Sale without a BP, Bears lose with 2BPs and they are still top. What odds on a red card or significant injury (two weeks +) at Sandy Park as I suspect it will be a ferocious contest. Either way I think our best chance of the final is against Bristol with an open game and who knows in the final.
I think we all probably feel that our best chance of winning a semi final is against Bristol, provided we can play with enough intensity to keep them on the back foot at the breakdown over 80 minutes and pressure their pack (Marler vs Sinckler could get very tasty).
In the final, I guess our best hope is that two successive wars of attrition between Exeter and Sale leaves the victor sufficiently shell-shocked that there are cracks in their system.